HDB lease decay: what the remaining lease does to price
Older HDB flats sell for less per square foot. Some of that is location, size and age of design, and some is the shorter lease. This curve separates the lease part, estimated from 130,946 resale transactions between Nov 2021 and Oct 2026.
85%
with 80 years left
77%
with 70 years left
73%
with 60 years left
62%
with 50 years left
Price per sq ft relative to a similar flat in the same town, sold in the same quarter, with 95 years left.
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How it's estimated
Each sale's log price per sq ft is split into four parts, fitted together by backfitting:
- Town, flat type and quarter: the market for that kind of flat, in that town, at that time.
- Storey: 0.72% per floor.
- Flat model: for example DBSS or maisonette.
- Remaining lease: one value per year of lease left, smoothed over 3 years and constrained so that more lease is never worth less.
Within a town, older estates are often more central and newer ones further out. The fit can't fully separate that from the lease, so treat the curve as a guide, not a law. There are almost no resales with fewer than 39 years left, so the curve stops there.
Flat model premiums
| Model | vs Model A | Sales |
|---|---|---|
| DBSS | +19.1% | 1,727 |
| Type S1 | +16.5% | 194 |
| Model A-Maisonette | +14.4% | 224 |
| Maisonette | +11.3% | 3,265 |
| Adjoined Flat | +9.0% | 208 |
| Simplified | +8.3% | 4,846 |
| Apartment | +7.7% | 4,192 |
| Model A2 | +5.4% | 1,390 |
| Standard | +5.3% | 3,255 |
| New Generation | +4.2% | 14,878 |
| Premium Apartment | +4.0% | 13,783 |
| Improved | +1.9% | 31,232 |
| 2-room | +0.0% | 507 |
| Model A | 0.0% | 50,891 |